Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Blue Jackets- Sean MonahanGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Sean MonahanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:54Brady Tkachuk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (29), Ridly Greig (15)4–1
- P36:49Ridly Greig Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Dylan Cozens (22), Thomas Chabot (14)3–1
- P110:15Tim Stützle Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (13), Nick Jensen (10)2–1
- P17:46Sean Monahan Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (17), Kent Johnson (10)1–1
- P13:34Tyler Kleven Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (26), Michael Amadio (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:34Tyler Kleven Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (26), Michael Amadio (11)OTT 1 – 0 CBJ · OTT 51% → 66% +15OTT 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P17:46Sean Monahan Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (17), Kent Johnson (10)OTT 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 34% → 49% +15CBJ 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P110:15Tim Stützle Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (13), Nick Jensen (10)OTT 2 – 1 CBJ · OTT 51% → 66% +15OTT 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P36:49Ridly Greig Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Dylan Cozens (22), Thomas Chabot (14)OTT 3 – 1 CBJ · OTT 79% → 94% +16OTT 79% → 94%+16 pts
- P316:54Brady Tkachuk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (29), Ridly Greig (15)OTT 4 – 1 CBJ · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 51%
- ML OTT -115 / CBJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 46.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −17 | OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +22 Elo | CBJ 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 19th of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 11–1120th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 148820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–29 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–19 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–3 CBJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.