Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists3
- Cole CaufieldPoints3
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists3
- Jake SandersonPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Cole Caufield Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (42)6–5
- P316:41Alexandre Carrier Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (30), Josh Anderson (5)5–5
- P315:36Juraj Slafkovský Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (41), Phillip Danault (10)4–5
- P37:55Jake Sanderson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (14)3–5
- P218:24David Perron Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (12), Jake Sanderson (29)3–4
- P215:31Dylan Cozens Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (28), Jake Sanderson (28)3–3
- P24:26Josh Anderson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (17), Noah Dobson (22)3–2
- P23:07Tim Stützle Goal (21) Between Legs, assists: Nick Cousins (7), Lars Eller (5)2–2
- P20:42Brady Tkachuk Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (24), Jake Sanderson (27)2–1
- P117:50Cole Caufield Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (39), Lane Hutson (40)2–0
- P13:06Juraj Slafkovský Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (24), Nick Suzuki (38)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:26Josh Anderson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (17), Noah Dobson (22)MTL 3 – 2 OTT · MTL 48% → 67% +18MTL 48% → 67%+18 pts
- P215:31Dylan Cozens Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (28), Jake Sanderson (28)MTL 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 30% → 51% +22OTT 30% → 51%+22 pts
- P218:24David Perron Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (12), Jake Sanderson (29)MTL 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 51% → 74% +23OTT 51% → 74%+23 pts
- P316:41Alexandre Carrier Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (30), Josh Anderson (5)MTL 5 – 5 OTT · MTL 6% → 49% +44MTL 6% → 49%+44 pts
- OT0:33Cole Caufield Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (42)MTL 6 – 5 OTT · MTL 49% → 91% +41MTL 49% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML MTL +100 / OTT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 55.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -109
- MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −5 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +38 Elo | OTT 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 53.1%4th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 87.3%32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 7th of 3213–11 | Road vs home | 11–1223rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Elo rating | 150015th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–22 | 18–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 9–24 |
| Underdog | 20–4 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 30–18 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–5 OTT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.