Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Andrew CoppAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:36Alex DeBrincat Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (22)3–4
- P219:05Shane Pinto Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (25), David Perron (15)3–3
- P216:53James van Riemsdyk Goal (13) Between Legs, assists: Dylan Larkin (20), Alex DeBrincat (26)2–3
- P26:06Lucas Raymond Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (5), Ben Chiarot (7)2–2
- P17:16Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (21), Andrew Copp (21)2–1
- P15:05Dylan Cozens Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (17), Drake Batherson (25)2–0
- P14:26Drake Batherson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (10), Thomas Chabot (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:26Drake Batherson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (10), Thomas Chabot (12)OTT 1 – 0 DET · OTT 47% → 62% +15OTT 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P26:06Lucas Raymond Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (5), Ben Chiarot (7)OTT 2 – 2 DET · DET 34% → 52% +19DET 34% → 52%+19 pts
- P216:53James van Riemsdyk Goal (13) Between Legs, assists: Dylan Larkin (20), Alex DeBrincat (26)OTT 2 – 3 DET · DET 52% → 74% +22DET 52% → 74%+22 pts
- P219:05Shane Pinto Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (25), David Perron (15)OTT 3 – 3 DET · OTT 25% → 48% +23OTT 25% → 48%+23 pts
- OT0:36Alex DeBrincat Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (22)OTT 3 – 4 DET · DET 51% → 91% +41DET 51% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML OTT +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.1 pts
- DET: Elo 63.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- OTT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +5 | OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +95 Elo | DET 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3286.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%15th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3211–12 | Road vs home | 17–92nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 17th of 321498 | Elo rating | 151014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–29 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–19 | 24–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 6–3 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.