Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals3
- Owen TippettAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints4
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:53Matvei Michkov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (28)7–3
- P310:24Owen Tippett Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P32:00Matvei Michkov Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (10), Garnet Hathaway (1)5–3
- P30:56Owen Tippett Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (21)4–3
- P212:12Cale Makar Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (49), Martin Necas (40)3–3
- P211:01Bobby Brink Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (16)3–2
- P210:29Victor Olofsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (48), Martin Necas (39)2–2
- P27:17Parker Kelly Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Zakhar Bardakov (8), Jack Ahcan (2)2–1
- P118:57Denver Barkey Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (15), Owen Tippett (15)2–0
- P115:02Owen Tippett Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (6), Cam York (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:29Victor Olofsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (48), Martin Necas (39)PHI 2 – 2 COL · COL 47% → 67% +20COL 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P211:01Bobby Brink Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (16)PHI 3 – 2 COL · PHI 33% → 54% +20PHI 33% → 54%+20 pts
- P212:12Cale Makar Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (49), Martin Necas (40)PHI 3 – 3 COL · COL 46% → 66% +21COL 46% → 66%+21 pts
- P30:56Owen Tippett Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (21)PHI 4 – 3 COL · PHI 36% → 62% +25PHI 36% → 62%+25 pts
- P32:00Matvei Michkov Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (10), Garnet Hathaway (1)PHI 5 – 3 COL · PHI 63% → 84% +21PHI 63% → 84%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 73%
- ML PHI +260 / COL -325
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- COL: Elo 72.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -275
- PHI +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −7 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +169 Elo | COL 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 72.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.61st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 56.6%2nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 91.8%1st of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 19th of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 20–51st of 32 |
| 4th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321465 | Elo rating | 15961st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–19 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 25–22 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 29–20 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.