Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Ethen FrankGoals1
- Ethen FrankAssists1
- Ethen FrankPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (38)2–5
- P312:32Artturi Lehkonen Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (47)2–4
- P216:15Ethen Frank Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (22), Nic Dowd (11)2–3
- P215:58Victor Olofsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (17), Brock Nelson (17)1–3
- P27:03Nathan MacKinnon Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (37), Victor Olofsson (14)1–2
- P17:27Jakob Chychrun Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (26), Ethen Frank (9)1–1
- P15:54Parker Kelly Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (40), Alex Barré-Boulet (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:54Parker Kelly Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (40), Alex Barré-Boulet (1)WSH 0 – 1 COL · COL 65% → 78% +13COL 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P17:27Jakob Chychrun Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (26), Ethen Frank (9)WSH 1 – 1 COL · WSH 22% → 35% +13WSH 22% → 35%+13 pts
- P27:03Nathan MacKinnon Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (37), Victor Olofsson (14)WSH 1 – 2 COL · COL 62% → 79% +17COL 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P215:58Victor Olofsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (17), Brock Nelson (17)WSH 1 – 3 COL · COL 80% → 92% +12COL 80% → 92%+12 pts
- P216:15Ethen Frank Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (22), Nic Dowd (11)WSH 2 – 3 COL · WSH 8% → 20% +12WSH 8% → 20%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 66%
- ML WSH +180 / COL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- COL: Elo 68.8%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -192
- WSH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +7 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +137 Elo | COL 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 71.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.61st of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.8%1st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 19–41st of 32 |
| 14th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 11th of 321513 | Elo rating | 15971st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–23 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26 | 21–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.