Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jeffrey VielGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Jeffrey VielPoints1
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Artturi LehkonenPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Cutter Gauthier Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Mikael Granlund Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P316:21Artturi Lehkonen Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (18), Brent Burns (17)1–1
- P21:27Jeffrey Viel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (21), Radko Gudas (9)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:27Jeffrey Viel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (21), Radko Gudas (9)ANA 1 – 0 COL · ANA 30% → 47% +17ANA 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P316:21Artturi Lehkonen Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (18), Brent Burns (17)ANA 1 – 1 COL · COL 9% → 57% +47COL 9% → 57%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 75%
- ML ANA +280 / COL -355
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- COL: Elo 73.5%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -296
- ANA +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +177 Elo | COL 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 71.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 91.8%1st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 28th of 3210–15 | Road vs home | 20–41st of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 29th of 321463 | Elo rating | 16001st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–25 | 26–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 25–21 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 32–17 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–6 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.