Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Andrei KuzmenkoAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints1
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Olen ZellwegerAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:02Mikael Granlund Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (23)1–2
- P25:39Adrian Kempe Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (17), Andrei Kuzmenko (10)1–1
- P16:11Mason McTavish Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (12), Ryan Strome (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:11Mason McTavish Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (12), Ryan Strome (5)LA 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 49% → 64% +15ANA 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P25:39Adrian Kempe Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (17), Andrei Kuzmenko (10)LA 1 – 1 ANA · LA 32% → 51% +19LA 32% → 51%+19 pts
- OT4:02Mikael Granlund Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (23)LA 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 50% → >99% +50ANA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 51%
- ML LA -115 / ANA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- LA: Elo 50.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -104
- ANA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | ANA and LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −7 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +4 Elo | LA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.632nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 51.3%8th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 10th of 3212–11 | Road vs home | 13–98th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 18th of 321495 | Elo rating | 145729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–29 | 22–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–24 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 21–26 | 31–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 7–4 ANA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.