Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Tim WasheGoals1
- Beckett SenneckeAssists2
- Beckett SenneckePoints2
Kings- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Joel ArmiaAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mason McTavish Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Beckett Sennecke Goal Backhand1–1
- SO0:00Brandt Clarke Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P214:56Tim Washe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (12), Beckett Sennecke (22)2–2
- P212:12Ryan Strome Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (24), Beckett Sennecke (21)1–2
- P211:33Joel Armia Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Andre Lee (1)0–2
- P11:38Quinton Byfield Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:38Quinton Byfield Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (8)ANA 0 – 1 LA · LA 57% → 71% +14LA 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P211:33Joel Armia Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Andre Lee (1)ANA 0 – 2 LA · LA 74% → 88% +14LA 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P212:12Ryan Strome Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (24), Beckett Sennecke (21)ANA 1 – 2 LA · ANA 12% → 25% +14ANA 12% → 25%+14 pts
- P214:56Tim Washe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (12), Beckett Sennecke (22)ANA 2 – 2 LA · ANA 25% → 45% +21ANA 25% → 45%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 57%
- ML ANA +124 / LA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- LA: Elo 61.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -134
- ANA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +81 Elo | LA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%11th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 329–15 | Road vs home | 7–1630th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 29th of 321454 | Elo rating | 149818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–25 | 18–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 5–23 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–15 | 21–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–7 LA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.