New York Rangers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Matthew RobertsonGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists2
- Vincent TrocheckPoints2
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:24Cutter Gauthier Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (25)3–5
- P37:11Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (37), Vincent Trocheck (20)3–4
- P31:01Cutter Gauthier Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (8)2–4
- P218:02Alex Killorn Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jacob Trouba (13)2–3
- P28:29Jeffrey Viel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (13)2–2
- P24:03Artemi Panarin Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (19), J.T. Miller (19)2–1
- P111:31Mason McTavish Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (7)1–1
- P14:00Matthew Robertson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (26), J.T. Miller (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:00Matthew Robertson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (26), J.T. Miller (18)NYR 1 – 0 ANA · NYR 43% → 58% +15NYR 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P111:31Mason McTavish Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (7)NYR 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 40% → 56% +16ANA 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P24:03Artemi Panarin Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (19), J.T. Miller (19)NYR 2 – 1 ANA · NYR 44% → 63% +19NYR 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P28:29Jeffrey Viel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (13)NYR 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 35% → 55% +20ANA 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P218:02Alex Killorn Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jacob Trouba (13)NYR 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 54% → 76% +22ANA 54% → 76%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 57%
- ML NYR +124 / ANA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ANA: Elo 54.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ANA -134
- NYR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +2 | NYR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +31 Elo | ANA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 51.5%8th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%31st of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 4th of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 14–96th of 32 |
| 5th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Elo rating | 145929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–25 | 23–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 21–28 | 31–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–2 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.