New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals2
- Anthony DuclairAssists2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints2
FlyersScoring summary
- P313:38Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (1), Anders Lee (18)4–0
- P212:50Tony DeAngelo Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (31), Anthony Duclair (13)3–0
- P25:41Mathew Barzal Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Isaiah George (1), Anthony Duclair (12)2–0
- P114:29Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (8), Adam Pelech (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:29Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (8), Adam Pelech (5)NYI 1 – 0 PHI · NYI 49% → 65% +16NYI 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P25:41Mathew Barzal Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Isaiah George (1), Anthony Duclair (12)NYI 2 – 0 PHI · NYI 68% → 83% +15NYI 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P212:50Tony DeAngelo Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (31), Anthony Duclair (13)NYI 3 – 0 PHI · NYI 86% → 95% +9NYI 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P313:38Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (1), Anders Lee (18)NYI 4 – 0 PHI · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML NYI -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +19 Elo | PHI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.5%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 13th of 3213–13 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321481 | Elo rating | 147325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–24 | 31–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–15 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–5 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.