New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors EDM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anthony DuclairGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists1
- Anthony DuclairPoints1
OilersScoring summary
- P313:42Anthony Duclair Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (5), Mathew Barzal (27)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P313:42Anthony Duclair Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (5), Mathew Barzal (27)NYI 1 – 0 EDM · NYI 47% → 85% +39NYI 47% → 85%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 60%
- ML NYI +142 / EDM -170
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.1%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- EDM -152
- NYI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | 0 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +86 Elo | EDM 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 51.6%7th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 14th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321489 | Elo rating | 15384th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–20 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 24–8 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–3 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.