New York Islanders at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anthony DuclairGoals1
- Calum RitchieAssists1
- Anthony DuclairPoints1
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:32Jared McCann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (13), Philipp Grubauer (1)1–4
- P216:28Kaapo Kakko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (9)1–3
- P213:37Vince Dunn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (10), Ben Meyers (6)1–2
- P110:40Matty Beniers Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (24), Jared McCann (10)1–1
- P12:38Anthony Duclair Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (8), Mathew Barzal (30)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:38Anthony Duclair Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (8), Mathew Barzal (30)NYI 1 – 0 SEA · NYI 50% → 65% +15NYI 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P110:40Matty Beniers Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (24), Jared McCann (10)NYI 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 34% → 50% +16SEA 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P213:37Vince Dunn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (10), Ben Meyers (6)NYI 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 50% → 71% +21SEA 50% → 71%+21 pts
- P216:28Kaapo Kakko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (9)NYI 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 72% → 88% +16SEA 72% → 88%+16 pts
- P316:32Jared McCann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (13), Philipp Grubauer (1)NYI 1 – 4 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 50%
- ML NYI -112 / SEA -108
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 48.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NYI -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 46.4%29th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%5th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 12th of 3213–12 | Road vs home | 10–1327th of 32 |
| 4th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149432nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 146925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–22 | 32–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 29–13 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25 | 20–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–4 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.