Seattle Kraken at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Matty BeniersPoints2
Mammoth- Nate SchmidtGoals2
- Nate SchmidtAssists2
- Nate SchmidtPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:09Barrett Hayton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (20), Karel Vejmelka (2)3–6
- P315:12Lawson Crouse Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (33), Nate Schmidt (14)3–5
- P314:30Nate Schmidt Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (32)3–4
- P217:43Chandler Stephenson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (9), Eeli Tolvanen (19)3–3
- P215:11Matty Beniers Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (23), Berkly Catton (6)2–3
- P24:31Nick Schmaltz Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (13), Nate Schmidt (13)1–3
- P20:28Nate Schmidt Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (10), Dylan Guenther (18)1–2
- P12:47Kevin Stenlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (12), Ian Cole (14)1–1
- P11:09Jordan Eberle Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Kaapo Kakko (13), Matty Beniers (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:09Jordan Eberle Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Kaapo Kakko (13), Matty Beniers (21)SEA 1 – 0 UTA · SEA 36% → 51% +14SEA 36% → 51%+14 pts
- P12:47Kevin Stenlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (12), Ian Cole (14)SEA 1 – 1 UTA · UTA 49% → 63% +15UTA 49% → 63%+15 pts
- P20:28Nate Schmidt Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (10), Dylan Guenther (18)SEA 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 61% → 77% +16UTA 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P217:43Chandler Stephenson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (9), Eeli Tolvanen (19)SEA 3 – 3 UTA · SEA 21% → 42% +21SEA 21% → 42%+21 pts
- P314:30Nate Schmidt Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (32)SEA 3 – 4 UTA · UTA 54% → 91% +36UTA 54% → 91%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 64%
- ML SEA +164 / UTA -198
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- UTA: Elo 60.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- UTA -175
- SEA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +10 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +76 Elo | UTA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.36th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 18th of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 13–97th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–14 | 21–27 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 29–11 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–2 UTA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.
