New York Islanders at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Matthew SchaeferAssists2
- Matthew SchaeferPoints2
Flames- Adam KlapkaGoals1
- Kevin BahlAssists2
- Adam KlapkaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:04Anders Lee Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (6), Matthew Schaefer (19)2–4
- P212:21Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (18), Simon Holmstrom (12)1–4
- P211:49Yan Kuznetsov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (25), Connor Zary (11)0–4
- P29:50Justin Kirkland Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (4), Adam Klapka (6)0–3
- P23:04Adam Klapka Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (7), Morgan Frost (14)0–2
- P111:51Yegor Sharangovich Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (20), Kevin Bahl (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:51Yegor Sharangovich Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (20), Kevin Bahl (6)NYI 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 53% → 68% +16CGY 53% → 68%+16 pts
- P23:04Adam Klapka Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (7), Morgan Frost (14)NYI 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 70% → 84% +14CGY 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P29:50Justin Kirkland Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (4), Adam Klapka (6)NYI 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 86% → 95% +8CGY 86% → 95%+8 pts
- P211:49Yan Kuznetsov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (25), Connor Zary (11)NYI 0 – 4 CGY · CGY 95% → 99% +3CGY 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P212:21Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (18), Simon Holmstrom (12)NYI 1 – 4 CGY · NYI 1% → 5% +3NYI 1% → 5%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 53%
- ML NYI +105 / CGY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- CGY: Elo 52.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -114
- NYI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +18 Elo | CGY 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%8th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 9th of 3212–11 | Road vs home | 12–910th of 32 |
| 1st of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149530th of 32 |
| 19th of 321492 | Elo rating | 147625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–20 | 27–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 25–8 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–3 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.