New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anthony DuclairGoals2
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Anthony DuclairPoints2
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:09Drew O'Connor Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (25)4–3
- P310:15Tony DeAngelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (29), Anders Lee (17)4–2
- P215:58Ryan Pulock Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (21), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (11)3–2
- P214:34Anthony Duclair Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (7), Mathew Barzal (28)2–2
- P114:48Evander Kane Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (6), David Kampf (2)1–2
- P110:11Anthony Duclair Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (18), Matthew Schaefer (20)1–1
- P12:49Max Sasson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (12), Nils Hoglander (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:49Max Sasson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (12), Nils Hoglander (1)NYI 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 42% → 57% +15VAN 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P110:11Anthony Duclair Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (18), Matthew Schaefer (20)NYI 1 – 1 VAN · NYI 42% → 58% +16NYI 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P114:48Evander Kane Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (6), David Kampf (2)NYI 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 43% → 59% +17VAN 43% → 59%+17 pts
- P214:34Anthony Duclair Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (7), Mathew Barzal (28)NYI 2 – 2 VAN · NYI 34% → 55% +22NYI 34% → 55%+22 pts
- P215:58Ryan Pulock Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (21), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (11)NYI 3 – 2 VAN · NYI 55% → 76% +21NYI 55% → 76%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 58%
- ML NYI -155 / VAN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 53.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -140
- VAN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +25 Elo | NYI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 47.4%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3212–12 | Road vs home | 4–1632nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 32 |
| 19th of 321489 | Elo rating | 143730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–21 | 22–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 23–25 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–4 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.