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Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Oilers

24-17-8

6–0

at

Home

Canucks

16-27-5

EDM 62%VAN 38%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored EDM favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks

    Scoring summary

    • P216:34Vasily Podkolzin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none6–0
    • P215:08Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (28)5–0
    • P214:31Jack Roslovic Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Isaac Howard (2), Matt Savoie (8)4–0
    • P211:42Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (27), Ty Emberson (8)3–0
    • P26:49Zach Hyman Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (36), Connor McDavid (53)2–0
    • P23:11Jack Roslovic Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Curtis Lazar (1), Jake Walman (8)1–0

    Turning points

    The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P23:11Jack Roslovic Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Curtis Lazar (1), Jake Walman (8)EDM 1 – 0 VAN · EDM 60% → 76% +16
    2. P26:49Zach Hyman Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (36), Connor McDavid (53)EDM 2 – 0 VAN · EDM 77% → 89% +12
    3. P211:42Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (27), Ty Emberson (8)EDM 3 – 0 VAN · EDM 90% → 96% +7
    4. P214:31Jack Roslovic Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Isaac Howard (2), Matt Savoie (8)EDM 4 – 0 VAN · EDM 97% → >99% +2
    5. P215:08Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (28)EDM 5 – 0 VAN · EDM >99% → >99% +1

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Oilers 62%

    SolidHit
    EDM 62%VAN 38%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    EDM 62%
    ML EDM -185 / VAN +154
    Pre-line forecast
    EDM 59%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    EDM 59%
    Ratings vs. market
    −3.5 pts
    EDM: Elo 58.8%, market 62.2%
    Fair odds
    EDM -165
    VAN +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    EDM 3.6 – 2.9 VAN
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorEDMVANWhy
    Team rating15351442Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+1−3EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsEDM +62 EloEDM 58.8%
    Market-implied ratingsEDM 59.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastEDM 59.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastEDM 62.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
    EDMStatVAN
    12th of 323.3Goals scored2.728th of 32
    23rd of 323.3Goals allowed3.631st of 32
    16th of 320.0Margin−0.932nd of 32
    7th of 3251.9%Shot share47.4%27th of 32
    26th of 3288.6%Save percentage88.9%23rd of 32
    21st of 324–6Last 101–932nd of 32
    22nd of 3212–15Road vs home4–1532nd of 32
    25th of 321497Opponent Elo149918th of 32
    6th of 321535Elo rating144230th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    OilersCanucks
    135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonEDMVAN
    Puck line19–2922–25
    Last 103–72–8
    Favorite14–261–9
    Underdog5–321–16
    Overs–unders28–2026–21
    Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    EDM 7–9 VAN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.