Pittsburgh Penguins at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Connor DewarGoals2
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Connor DewarPoints2
Kraken- Ben MeyersGoals1
- Ryan WintertonAssists2
- Ben MeyersPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:30Connor Dewar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (7)6–3
- P316:48Rickard Rakell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (29)5–3
- P37:47Eeli Tolvanen Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (12), Shane Wright (10)4–3
- P32:21Justin Brazeau Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (18), Connor Clifton (1)4–2
- P214:45Brett Kulak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (28)3–2
- P213:55Ryan Lindgren Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (9), Ben Meyers (5)2–2
- P116:12Ben Meyers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (8), Ryan Winterton (8)2–1
- P17:50Connor Dewar Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P15:44Parker Wotherspoon Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (6), Anthony Mantha (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:44Parker Wotherspoon Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (6), Anthony Mantha (17)PIT 1 – 0 SEA · PIT 54% → 69% +15PIT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P213:55Ryan Lindgren Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (9), Ben Meyers (5)PIT 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 27% → 47% +21SEA 27% → 47%+21 pts
- P214:45Brett Kulak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (28)PIT 3 – 2 SEA · PIT 53% → 74% +21PIT 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P32:21Justin Brazeau Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (18), Connor Clifton (1)PIT 4 – 2 SEA · PIT 77% → 92% +15PIT 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P37:47Eeli Tolvanen Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (12), Shane Wright (10)PIT 4 – 3 SEA · SEA 5% → 20% +15SEA 5% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML PIT -130 / SEA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +4 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +25 Elo | SEA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%4th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 8th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 10–1227th of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149432nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321481 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–19 | 32–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 22–6 | 29–12 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 19–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–4 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.