Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals2
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists2
- Jason ZuckerPoints2
IslandersScoring summary
- P314:38Alex Tuch Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (20), Michael Kesselring (1)5–0
- P314:02Rasmus Dahlin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (15)4–0
- P30:25Jason Zucker Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (23)3–0
- P219:47Tage Thompson Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (18), Mattias Samuelsson (19)2–0
- P20:33Jason Zucker Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (19), Ryan McLeod (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:33Jason Zucker Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (19), Ryan McLeod (22)BUF 1 – 0 NYI · BUF 50% → 67% +17BUF 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P219:47Tage Thompson Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (18), Mattias Samuelsson (19)BUF 2 – 0 NYI · BUF 74% → 90% +16BUF 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P30:25Jason Zucker Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (23)BUF 3 – 0 NYI · BUF 90% → 97% +7BUF 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P314:02Rasmus Dahlin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (15)BUF 4 – 0 NYI · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P314:38Alex Tuch Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (20), Michael Kesselring (1)BUF 5 – 0 NYI · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 50%
- ML BUF -110 / NYI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- NYI: Elo 50.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYI -100
- BUF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF 0 Elo | BUF 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.1% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%3rd of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 16th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 14–109th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 32 |
| 9th of 321518 | Elo rating | 148620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–22 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 2–14 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 25–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–24 | 24–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–3 NYI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.