Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:16Peyton Krebs Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (26)4–2
- P211:20Nick Suzuki Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (9)3–2
- P23:56Cole Caufield Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (41), Mike Matheson (19)3–1
- P22:25Zach Benson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Konsta Helenius (3), Noah Ostlund (9)3–0
- P114:58Beck Malenstyn Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (18)2–0
- P10:44Jason Zucker Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (18), Ryan McLeod (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:44Jason Zucker Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (18), Ryan McLeod (21)BUF 1 – 0 MTL · BUF 48% → 62% +14BUF 48% → 62%+14 pts
- P114:58Beck Malenstyn Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (18)BUF 2 – 0 MTL · BUF 65% → 79% +14BUF 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P22:25Zach Benson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Konsta Helenius (3), Noah Ostlund (9)BUF 3 – 0 MTL · BUF 81% → 91% +10BUF 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P23:56Cole Caufield Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (41), Mike Matheson (19)BUF 3 – 1 MTL · MTL 9% → 18% +10MTL 9% → 18%+10 pts
- P211:20Nick Suzuki Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (9)BUF 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 15% → 31% +16MTL 15% → 31%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 52%
- ML BUF +100 / MTL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- MTL: Elo 52.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −7 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +17 Elo | MTL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 18th of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 14–1112th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 12th of 321514 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–22 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 21–4 |
| Overs–unders | 26–23 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–7 MTL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.