Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Noah OstlundGoals2
- Konsta HeleniusAssists2
- Konsta HeleniusPoints3
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals2
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:14Peyton Krebs Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (17)5–3
- P39:30Ryan O'Reilly Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (28), Filip Forsberg (20)4–3
- P211:54Filip Forsberg Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (29)4–2
- P210:09Ryan O'Reilly Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (19), Brady Skjei (14)4–1
- P24:20Tage Thompson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (24), Josh Doan (20)4–0
- P117:24Konsta Helenius Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (14)3–0
- P111:45Noah Ostlund Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Konsta Helenius (2), Owen Power (12)2–0
- P18:11Noah Ostlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Konsta Helenius (1), Rasmus Dahlin (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:11Noah Ostlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Konsta Helenius (1), Rasmus Dahlin (29)BUF 1 – 0 NSH · BUF 45% → 61% +16BUF 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P111:45Noah Ostlund Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Konsta Helenius (2), Owen Power (12)BUF 2 – 0 NSH · BUF 61% → 76% +14BUF 61% → 76%+14 pts
- P117:24Konsta Helenius Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (14)BUF 3 – 0 NSH · BUF 78% → 88% +11BUF 78% → 88%+11 pts
- P211:54Filip Forsberg Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (29)BUF 4 – 2 NSH · NSH 7% → 16% +10NSH 7% → 16%+10 pts
- P39:30Ryan O'Reilly Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (28), Filip Forsberg (20)BUF 4 – 3 NSH · NSH 5% → 21% +16NSH 5% → 21%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 55%
- ML BUF +114 / NSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 49.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NSH -123
- BUF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +3 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +7 Elo | BUF 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3210–13 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321511 | Elo rating | 147026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–22 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–3 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.