Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints2
Canadiens- Lane HutsonGoals1
- Ivan DemidovAssists2
- Lane HutsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:45Cole Caufield Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (40), Lane Hutson (43)3–4
- P312:40Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (34), Mats Zuccarello (20)3–3
- P212:35Lane Hutson Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (32), Jayden Struble (7)2–3
- P210:16Brock Faber Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (33), Vincent Hinostroza (6)2–2
- P119:08Alexandre Carrier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (18), Ivan Demidov (31)1–2
- P115:22Phillip Danault Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (6), Kaiden Guhle (2)1–1
- P110:44Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (19), Quinn Hughes (40)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:22Phillip Danault Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (6), Kaiden Guhle (2)MIN 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 39% → 55% +17MTL 39% → 55%+17 pts
- P210:16Brock Faber Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (33), Vincent Hinostroza (6)MIN 2 – 2 MTL · MIN 26% → 46% +19MIN 26% → 46%+19 pts
- P212:35Lane Hutson Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (32), Jayden Struble (7)MIN 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 54% → 74% +20MTL 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P312:40Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (34), Mats Zuccarello (20)MIN 3 – 3 MTL · MIN 14% → 48% +34MIN 14% → 48%+34 pts
- P319:45Cole Caufield Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (40), Lane Hutson (43)MIN 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 50% → >99% +50MTL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 56%
- ML MIN +120 / MTL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 57.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +51 Elo | MTL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.5%29th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3215–10 | Road vs home | 13–1114th of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 8th of 321523 | Elo rating | 150315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–23 | 27–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 18–4 | 21–4 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–0 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.