Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals3
- Brock FaberAssists2
- Marcus FolignoPoints3
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Auston MatthewsAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:22Marcus Foligno Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (15), Nico Sturm (6)6–3
- P315:02Auston Matthews Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (17)5–3
- P36:27Nicholas Robertson Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Nicolas Roy (14), Easton Cowan (9)5–2
- P219:14Marcus Foligno Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (20), Danila Yurov (12)5–1
- P28:24Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (39)4–1
- P26:53Marcus Foligno Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (19), Quinn Hughes (38)3–1
- P118:24John Tavares Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (29), Auston Matthews (17)2–1
- P110:29Ryan Hartman Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (18), Kirill Kaprizov (32)2–0
- P14:45Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (9), Kirill Kaprizov (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:45Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (9), Kirill Kaprizov (31)MIN 1 – 0 TOR · MIN 50% → 65% +15MIN 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P110:29Ryan Hartman Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (18), Kirill Kaprizov (32)MIN 2 – 0 TOR · MIN 66% → 79% +13MIN 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P118:24John Tavares Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (29), Auston Matthews (17)MIN 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 19% → 33% +14TOR 19% → 33%+14 pts
- P26:53Marcus Foligno Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (19), Quinn Hughes (38)MIN 3 – 1 TOR · MIN 69% → 84% +15MIN 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P28:24Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (39)MIN 4 – 1 TOR · MIN 84% → 93% +9MIN 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML MIN -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +52 Elo | TOR 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 16–106th of 32 |
| 26th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 9th of 321517 | Elo rating | 15287th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–23 | 22–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 17–4 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.