Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals3
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints3
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- Charlie McAvoyAssists3
- Charlie McAvoyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:07Morgan Geekie Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (29), Pavel Zacha (22)3–4
- P313:55Fraser Minten Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Hampus Lindholm (13), Charlie McAvoy (28)3–3
- P213:29Cole Caufield Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (43), Lane Hutson (44)3–2
- P29:46Morgan Geekie Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (43), Charlie McAvoy (27)2–2
- P27:37Cole Caufield Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (42), Juraj Slafkovský (22)2–1
- P21:45Viktor Arvidsson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (12), Casey Mittelstadt (14)1–1
- P16:36Cole Caufield Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (20), Jake Evans (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:37Cole Caufield Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (42), Juraj Slafkovský (22)MTL 2 – 1 BOS · MTL 49% → 68% +19MTL 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P29:46Morgan Geekie Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (43), Charlie McAvoy (27)MTL 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 31% → 51% +20BOS 31% → 51%+20 pts
- P213:29Cole Caufield Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (43), Lane Hutson (44)MTL 3 – 2 BOS · MTL 49% → 70% +21MTL 49% → 70%+21 pts
- P313:55Fraser Minten Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Hampus Lindholm (13), Charlie McAvoy (28)MTL 3 – 3 BOS · BOS 13% → 50% +38BOS 13% → 50%+38 pts
- P314:07Morgan Geekie Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (29), Pavel Zacha (22)MTL 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 50% → 88% +38BOS 50% → 88%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML MTL -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- MTL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +3 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +45 Elo | BOS 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3214–11 | Road vs home | 18–92nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–24 | 34–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 21–4 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 32–19 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–6 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.