Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:15David Pastrnak Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (31), Marat Khusnutdinov (12)2–3
- P313:17Nick Blankenburg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (7), Luke Evangelista (31)2–2
- P219:25Roman Josi Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (33), Steven Stamkos (13)1–2
- P22:48Morgan Geekie Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (47), Jonathan Aspirot (2)0–2
- P113:16Hampus Lindholm Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (17), Fraser Minten (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:16Hampus Lindholm Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (17), Fraser Minten (13)NSH 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 51% → 67% +16BOS 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P22:48Morgan Geekie Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (47), Jonathan Aspirot (2)NSH 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 69% → 83% +14BOS 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P219:25Roman Josi Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (33), Steven Stamkos (13)NSH 1 – 2 BOS · NSH 10% → 26% +16NSH 10% → 26%+16 pts
- P313:17Nick Blankenburg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (7), Luke Evangelista (31)NSH 2 – 2 BOS · NSH 14% → 50% +36NSH 14% → 50%+36 pts
- OT0:15David Pastrnak Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (31), Marat Khusnutdinov (12)NSH 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 50% → 90% +40BOS 50% → 90%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML NSH -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- NSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +42 Elo | BOS 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 20th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 19–92nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 27th of 321466 | Elo rating | 150017th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–26 | 34–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.