Utah Mammoth at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Kailer YamamotoGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists3
- Mikhail SergachevPoints3
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:28JJ Peterka Goal (18) , assists: Dylan Guenther (21), Barrett Hayton (10)5–2
- P311:02Barrett Hayton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (20), Mikhail Sergachev (29)4–2
- P216:39Jonathan Marchessault Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (15)3–2
- P28:10Kailer Yamamoto Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (28), Sean Durzi (12)3–1
- P25:13Michael Carcone Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (6)2–1
- P23:00Clayton Keller Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (27), Sean Durzi (11)1–1
- P13:43Steven Stamkos Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:43Steven Stamkos Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (22)UTA 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 49% → 64% +15NSH 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P23:00Clayton Keller Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (27), Sean Durzi (11)UTA 1 – 1 NSH · UTA 33% → 51% +18UTA 33% → 51%+18 pts
- P25:13Michael Carcone Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (6)UTA 2 – 1 NSH · UTA 51% → 69% +18UTA 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P28:10Kailer Yamamoto Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (28), Sean Durzi (12)UTA 3 – 1 NSH · UTA 70% → 85% +15UTA 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P216:39Jonathan Marchessault Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (15)UTA 3 – 2 NSH · NSH 12% → 27% +16NSH 12% → 27%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 51%
- ML UTA -115 / NSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 51.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -104
- NSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.3 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +1 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +13 Elo | UTA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 147026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–28 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–3 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.
