Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals3
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists3
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:33Cole Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (17), Ryan O'Reilly (32)3–5
- P318:47Steven Stamkos Goal (24) Batted, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (31), Nick Blankenburg (15)3–4
- P310:07Steven Stamkos Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (30), Roman Josi (21)3–3
- P38:19Jonathan Marchessault Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (17), Luke Evangelista (30)3–2
- P218:34Steven Stamkos Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (29), Filip Forsberg (21)3–1
- P210:46Brady Tkachuk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (23), Artem Zub (13)3–0
- P114:19Ridly Greig Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (12), Jake Sanderson (30)2–0
- P16:03Stephen Halliday Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Lars Eller (6), Nick Cousins (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:03Stephen Halliday Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Lars Eller (6), Nick Cousins (8)OTT 1 – 0 NSH · OTT 52% → 67% +15OTT 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P114:19Ridly Greig Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (12), Jake Sanderson (30)OTT 2 – 0 NSH · OTT 68% → 81% +13OTT 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P38:19Jonathan Marchessault Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (17), Luke Evangelista (30)OTT 3 – 2 NSH · NSH 5% → 20% +15NSH 5% → 20%+15 pts
- P310:07Steven Stamkos Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (30), Roman Josi (21)OTT 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 18% → 49% +31NSH 18% → 49%+31 pts
- P318:47Steven Stamkos Goal (24) Batted, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (31), Nick Blankenburg (15)OTT 3 – 4 NSH · NSH 50% → >99% +50NSH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML OTT -118 / NSH -102
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 48.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- OTT -107
- NSH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +1 | OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +10 Elo | NSH 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 4th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 16th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 12–1321st of 32 |
| 21st of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Elo rating | 146727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–29 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–20 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–2 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.