Boston Bruins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Elias LindholmGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists3
- David PastrnakPoints3
Rangers- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Urho VaakanainenAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:53Matthew Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Quick (1), Vincent Trocheck (22)3–4
- P313:43Will Borgen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (38), Alexis Lafrenière (19)3–3
- P28:52Morgan Geekie Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (46), Mason Lohrei (16)3–2
- P23:18Elias Lindholm Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (45), Charlie McAvoy (30)2–2
- P112:35J.T. Miller Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (5), Mika Zibanejad (28)1–2
- P112:09Elias Lindholm Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (44)1–1
- P19:45Will Cuylle Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (4), Noah Laba (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:35J.T. Miller Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (5), Mika Zibanejad (28)BOS 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 48% → 64% +16NYR 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P23:18Elias Lindholm Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (45), Charlie McAvoy (30)BOS 2 – 2 NYR · BOS 34% → 52% +18BOS 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P28:52Morgan Geekie Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (46), Mason Lohrei (16)BOS 3 – 2 NYR · BOS 52% → 71% +19BOS 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P313:43Will Borgen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (38), Alexis Lafrenière (19)BOS 3 – 3 NYR · NYR 13% → 49% +37NYR 13% → 49%+37 pts
- OT3:53Matthew Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Quick (1), Vincent Trocheck (22)BOS 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 50% → >99% +50NYR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -122 / NYR +102
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.6%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- NYR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −7 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +3 Elo | NYR 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 21st of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 5–1731st of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 32 |
| 15th of 321502 | Elo rating | 147523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–18 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 27–10 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–23 | 23–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–6 NYR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.