New York Rangers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- J.T. MillerGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:33J.T. Miller Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (9), Vincent Trocheck (21)3–4
- P212:37Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (18), Alex Turcotte (9)2–4
- P24:23Taylor Ward Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (2), Samuel Helenius (1)2–3
- P116:36J.T. Miller Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (27), Braden Schneider (8)2–2
- P19:00Kevin Fiala Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P18:18Will Cuylle Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Scott Morrow (6), Noah Laba (8)1–1
- P10:18Adrian Kempe Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (18), Corey Perry (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:18Adrian Kempe Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (18), Corey Perry (14)NYR 0 – 1 LA · LA 62% → 75% +13LA 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P18:18Will Cuylle Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Scott Morrow (6), Noah Laba (8)NYR 1 – 1 LA · NYR 25% → 39% +14NYR 25% → 39%+14 pts
- P19:00Kevin Fiala Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 2 LA · LA 61% → 75% +14LA 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P116:36J.T. Miller Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (27), Braden Schneider (8)NYR 2 – 2 LA · NYR 24% → 40% +15NYR 24% → 40%+15 pts
- P24:23Taylor Ward Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (2), Samuel Helenius (1)NYR 2 – 3 LA · LA 59% → 76% +17LA 59% → 76%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML NYR +154 / LA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- LA: Elo 62.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -165
- NYR +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +2 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +88 Elo | LA 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 65.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 50.9%12th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%9th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 6th of 3215–12 | Road vs home | 7–1730th of 32 |
| 8th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321480 | Elo rating | 149218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–26 | 18–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 5–25 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–28 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–3 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.