New York Rangers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Anton BlidhAssists1
- Anton BlidhPoints1
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Collin GrafAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Scoring summary
- P112:50Sam Carrick Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (5), Anton Blidh (1)1–3
- P17:37Macklin Celebrini Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (19), Collin Graf (15)0–3
- P13:08Pavol Regenda Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Michael Misa (5), Collin Graf (14)0–2
- P11:09Macklin Celebrini Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (20), Will Smith (18)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:09Macklin Celebrini Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (20), Will Smith (18)NYR 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 54% → 68% +14SJ 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P13:08Pavol Regenda Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Michael Misa (5), Collin Graf (14)NYR 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 68% → 80% +12SJ 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P17:37Macklin Celebrini Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (19), Collin Graf (15)NYR 0 – 3 SJ · SJ 81% → 90% +9SJ 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P112:50Sam Carrick Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (5), Anton Blidh (1)NYR 1 – 3 SJ · NYR 9% → 18% +9NYR 9% → 18%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 54%
- ML NYR +110 / SJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- SJ: Elo 52.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SJ -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +8 | NYR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +18 Elo | SJ 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 45.3%32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 8th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 13–1216th of 32 |
| 8th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321478 | Elo rating | 143531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–26 | 32–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 20–8 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–2 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.