Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Dylan SambergAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Lightning- Darren RaddyshGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Yanni GourdePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:52Nikita Kucherov Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (14), Zemgus Girgensons (7)1–4
- P215:17Yanni Gourde Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Nikita Kucherov (55), Darren Raddysh (32)1–3
- P212:25Kyle Connor Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (9), Mark Scheifele (38)1–2
- P21:37Darren Raddysh Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (13), Zemgus Girgensons (6)0–2
- P114:58Dominic James Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (31), J.J. Moser (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:58Dominic James Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (31), J.J. Moser (13)WPG 0 – 1 TB · TB 61% → 76% +15TB 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P21:37Darren Raddysh Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (13), Zemgus Girgensons (6)WPG 0 – 2 TB · TB 76% → 88% +12TB 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P212:25Kyle Connor Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (9), Mark Scheifele (38)WPG 1 – 2 TB · WPG 10% → 23% +13WPG 10% → 23%+13 pts
- P215:17Yanni Gourde Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Nikita Kucherov (55), Darren Raddysh (32)WPG 1 – 3 TB · TB 78% → 91% +13TB 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P318:52Nikita Kucherov Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (14), Zemgus Girgensons (7)WPG 1 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML WPG +154 / TB -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- TB: Elo 66.3%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -165
- WPG +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.4 – 3.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +14 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +118 Elo | TB 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 30th of 329–16 | Road vs home | 14–98th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 12th of 321509 | Elo rating | 15792nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–28 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 10–0 |
| Overs–unders | 31–21 | 25–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–1 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.