Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists1
- Sam BennettPoints1
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals1
- Jonathan ToewsAssists1
- Cole PerfettiPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Sam Reinhart Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Anton Lundell Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P35:24Cole Perfetti Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Toews (12)1–1
- P218:49Sam Bennett Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (1)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:49Sam Bennett Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (1)FLA 1 – 0 WPG · FLA 50% → 73% +23FLA 50% → 73%+23 pts
- P35:24Cole Perfetti Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Toews (12)FLA 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 23% → 50% +27WPG 23% → 50%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 50%
- ML FLA -110 / WPG -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 55.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -100
- FLA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +4 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +39 Elo | WPG 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 48.5%22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 12–1321st of 32 |
| 7th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 6th of 321531 | Elo rating | 151512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–31 | 22–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–27 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.