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St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN MW

Away

Blues

19-23-8

1–3

at

Home

Jets

20-23-6

STL 47%WPG 53%

You didn't pick this one.

Canada Life Centre · ESPN+, FanDuel SN MW

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.

WPG favored STL favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3WPG50%STL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blues

Scoring summary

  • P317:37Mark Scheifele Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (35), Josh Morrissey (32)1–3
  • P217:23Jordan Kyrou Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (12), Dalibor Dvorsky (4)1–2
  • P111:25Mark Scheifele Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (31)0–2
  • P19:52Josh Morrissey Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (36), Kyle Connor (34)0–1

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P19:52Josh Morrissey Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (36), Kyle Connor (34)STL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 53% → 68% +15
  2. P111:25Mark Scheifele Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (31)STL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 68% → 81% +13
  3. P217:23Jordan Kyrou Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (12), Dalibor Dvorsky (4)STL 1 – 2 WPG · STL 11% → 26% +15
  4. P317:37Mark Scheifele Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (35), Josh Morrissey (32)STL 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 97% → >99% +3

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Jets 53%

Toss-upHit
STL 47%WPG 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
WPG 53%
ML STL +105 / WPG -125
Pre-line forecast
WPG 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WPG 53%
Ratings vs. market
−0.1 pts
WPG: Elo 53.2%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
WPG -114
STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
STL 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSTLWPGWhy
Team rating14711511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest—−30WPG on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies+5−18STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWPG +22 EloWPG 53.2%
Market-implied ratingsWPG 56.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWPG 55.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWPG 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets compared, with each team's league rank
STLStatWPG
32nd of 322.4Goals scored3.021st of 32
29th of 323.4Goals allowed3.118th of 32
31st of 32−1.0Margin−0.118th of 32
28th of 3246.6%Shot share48.6%22nd of 32
26th of 3288.6%Save percentage89.5%20th of 32
19th of 324–6Last 104–619th of 32
32nd of 327–16Road vs home11–1325th of 32
18th of 321499Opponent Elo150015th of 32
25th of 321471Elo rating151111th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BluesJets
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSTLWPG
Puck line22–2721–27
Last 104–64–6
Favorite1–1810–21
Underdog21–911–6
Overs–unders24–2529–19
Overs–unders, last 106–49–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

STL 5–10 WPG in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.