St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Mattias EkholmAssists2
- Zach HymanPoints3
Scoring summary
- P31:19Vasily Podkolzin Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (55), Zach Hyman (12)0–5
- P210:52Zach Hyman Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (54), Mattias Ekholm (18)0–4
- P118:43Zach Hyman Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (17), Vasily Podkolzin (11)0–3
- P111:52Andrew Mangiapane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (2)0–2
- P15:55Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (37), Jake Walman (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:55Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (37), Jake Walman (9)STL 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 59% → 73% +14EDM 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P111:52Andrew Mangiapane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (2)STL 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 73% → 85% +12EDM 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P118:43Zach Hyman Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (17), Vasily Podkolzin (11)STL 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 86% → 94% +8EDM 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P210:52Zach Hyman Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (54), Mattias Ekholm (18)STL 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 96% → 99% +3EDM 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P31:19Vasily Podkolzin Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (55), Zach Hyman (12)STL 0 – 5 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 59%
- ML STL +136 / EDM -162
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- EDM: Elo 60.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -146
- STL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +3 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +77 Elo | EDM 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 31st of 327–15 | Road vs home | 11–1015th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 15404th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–26 | 20–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 21–8 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–4 EDM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.