Winnipeg Jets at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Kyle ConnorAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:14Nico Hischier Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (27), Jack Hughes (24)4–3
- P219:24Jesper Bratt Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (23), Dougie Hamilton (14)4–2
- P216:42Nino Niederreiter Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (6), Adam Lowry (8)4–1
- P27:51Cole Koepke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (11), Morgan Barron (10)3–1
- P23:23Gabriel Vilardi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (37), Kyle Connor (37)2–1
- P18:02Lenni Hameenaho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (13)1–1
- P11:33Mark Scheifele Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (36), Gabriel Vilardi (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:33Mark Scheifele Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (36), Gabriel Vilardi (26)WPG 1 – 0 NJ · WPG 46% → 60% +15WPG 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P18:02Lenni Hameenaho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (13)WPG 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 39% → 54% +15NJ 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P23:23Gabriel Vilardi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (37), Kyle Connor (37)WPG 2 – 1 NJ · WPG 47% → 65% +18WPG 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P27:51Cole Koepke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (11), Morgan Barron (10)WPG 3 – 1 NJ · WPG 66% → 82% +16WPG 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P216:42Nino Niederreiter Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (6), Adam Lowry (8)WPG 4 – 1 NJ · WPG 87% → 95% +9WPG 87% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 54%
- ML WPG +110 / NJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 51.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- WPG +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.6 – 2.9 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +12 Elo | NJ 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.730th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 30th of 328–16 | Road vs home | 12–1116th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321506 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–28 | 19–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 5–25 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–1 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.