New Jersey Devils at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Dawson MercerPoints1
Flames- Matvei GridinAssists1
- Kevin BahlPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:18Simon Nemec Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (20), Jesper Bratt (26)2–1
- P29:44Nazem Kadri Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (8), Matvei Gridin (1)1–1
- P27:51Dawson Mercer Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Dougie Hamilton (10), Jonas Siegenthaler (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:51Dawson Mercer Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Dougie Hamilton (10), Jonas Siegenthaler (6)NJ 1 – 0 CGY · NJ 52% → 71% +19NJ 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P29:44Nazem Kadri Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (8), Matvei Gridin (1)NJ 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 28% → 48% +19CGY 28% → 48%+19 pts
- OT1:18Simon Nemec Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (20), Jesper Bratt (26)NJ 2 – 1 CGY · NJ 51% → 93% +42NJ 51% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML NJ -125 / CGY +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 44.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −1 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +41 Elo | CGY 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 15th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 13–99th of 32 |
| 1st of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149530th of 32 |
| 24th of 321476 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–30 | 28–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–22 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 20–28 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–3 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.