New Jersey Devils at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Cody GlassGoals2
- Cody GlassAssists1
- Cody GlassPoints3
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals1
- Linus KarlssonAssists1
- Linus KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:48Brock Boeser Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (13), Tom Willander (12)5–4
- P311:03Cody Glass Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (14), Johnathan Kovacevic (2)5–3
- P218:12Zeev Buium Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (17)4–3
- P215:12Connor Brown Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (12), Nico Hischier (23)4–2
- P211:59Teddy Blueger Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (8)3–2
- P29:47Linus Karlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (2), Marcus Pettersson (9)3–1
- P23:14Cody Glass Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (1), Jonas Siegenthaler (7)3–0
- P22:34Nico Hischier Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (21), Dougie Hamilton (12)2–0
- P11:41Lenni Hameenaho Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Simon Nemec (12), Cody Glass (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:41Lenni Hameenaho Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Simon Nemec (12), Cody Glass (5)NJ 1 – 0 VAN · NJ 58% → 72% +14NJ 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P211:59Teddy Blueger Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (8)NJ 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 11% → 25% +14VAN 11% → 25%+14 pts
- P215:12Connor Brown Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (12), Nico Hischier (23)NJ 4 – 2 VAN · NJ 76% → 90% +14NJ 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P218:12Zeev Buium Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (17)NJ 4 – 3 VAN · VAN 9% → 23% +14VAN 9% → 23%+14 pts
- P311:03Cody Glass Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (14), Johnathan Kovacevic (2)NJ 5 – 3 VAN · NJ 85% → 98% +13NJ 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 58%
- ML NJ -155 / VAN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -140
- VAN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −7 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +15 Elo | NJ 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 47.3%27th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3214–13 | Road vs home | 5–1731st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 143830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–31 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–23 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 23–17 |
| Overs–unders | 20–30 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–3 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.