Washington Capitals at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints3
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:37Dylan Strome Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (11), John Carlson (31)3–4
- P211:43Filip Hronek Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake DeBrusk (12), Tom Willander (11)2–4
- P28:58Drew O'Connor Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: David Kampf (4), Brock Boeser (13)2–3
- P118:22Evander Kane Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (11)2–2
- P113:32Brock Boeser Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: David Kampf (3)2–1
- P19:43Justin Sourdif Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (27), Alex Ovechkin (23)2–0
- P18:25Dylan Strome Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (21), John Carlson (30)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:25Dylan Strome Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (21), John Carlson (30)WSH 1 – 0 VAN · WSH 61% → 75% +14WSH 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P113:32Brock Boeser Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: David Kampf (3)WSH 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 14% → 25% +11VAN 14% → 25%+11 pts
- P118:22Evander Kane Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (11)WSH 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 25% → 40% +16VAN 25% → 40%+16 pts
- P28:58Drew O'Connor Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: David Kampf (4), Brock Boeser (13)WSH 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 42% → 62% +20VAN 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P211:43Filip Hronek Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake DeBrusk (12), Tom Willander (11)WSH 2 – 4 VAN · VAN 63% → 81% +18VAN 63% → 81%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 62%
- ML WSH -180 / VAN +150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -161
- VAN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −8 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +49 Elo | WSH 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 47.4%27th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3210–13 | Road vs home | 4–1732nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 14th of 321510 | Elo rating | 143531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–24 | 23–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders | 24–26 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.