New Jersey Devils at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Cody GlassGoals1
- Cody GlassAssists1
- Cody GlassPoints2
Oilers- Matt SavoieGoals1
- Isaac HowardAssists1
- Matt SavoiePoints1
Scoring summary
- P28:32Cody Glass Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (11), Connor Brown (9)2–1
- P27:02Matt Savoie Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (10), Isaac Howard (3)1–1
- P25:23Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (4), Dougie Hamilton (11)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:23Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (4), Dougie Hamilton (11)NJ 1 – 0 EDM · NJ 42% → 61% +19NJ 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P27:02Matt Savoie Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (10), Isaac Howard (3)NJ 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 39% → 58% +19EDM 39% → 58%+19 pts
- P28:32Cody Glass Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (11), Connor Brown (9)NJ 2 – 1 EDM · NJ 42% → 62% +20NJ 42% → 62%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 61%
- ML NJ +145 / EDM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- EDM: Elo 68.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -156
- NJ +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +131 Elo | EDM 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 65.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.28th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 13th of 3213–13 | Road vs home | 12–1014th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321479 | Elo rating | 15444th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–31 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–23 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–29 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–2 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.