Detroit Red Wings at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals2
- Andrew CoppAssists2
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Jets- Cole KoepkeGoals1
- Morgan BarronAssists1
- Cole KoepkePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:43Marco Kasper Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (40)5–1
- P318:11Alex DeBrincat Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (24), Patrick Kane (22)4–1
- P38:11Lucas Raymond Goal (18) Batted, assists: Marco Kasper (7), Jacob Bernard-Docker (4)3–1
- P31:43J.T. Compher Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (12), James van Riemsdyk (10)2–1
- P215:50J.T. Compher Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (23)1–1
- P210:08Cole Koepke Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Logan Stanley (9), Morgan Barron (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:08Cole Koepke Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Logan Stanley (9), Morgan Barron (9)DET 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 52% → 72% +19WPG 52% → 72%+19 pts
- P215:50J.T. Compher Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (23)DET 1 – 1 WPG · DET 27% → 48% +21DET 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P31:43J.T. Compher Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (12), James van Riemsdyk (10)DET 2 – 1 WPG · DET 48% → 73% +25DET 48% → 73%+25 pts
- P38:11Lucas Raymond Goal (18) Batted, assists: Marco Kasper (7), Jacob Bernard-Docker (4)DET 3 – 1 WPG · DET 78% → 95% +16DET 78% → 95%+16 pts
- P318:11Alex DeBrincat Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (24), Patrick Kane (22)DET 4 – 1 WPG · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 53%
- ML DET +105 / WPG -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +32 Elo | WPG 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 48.5%22nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 3213–12 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 32 |
| 24th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 12th of 321513 | Elo rating | 151213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–25 | 23–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 21–7 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.