Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Maple Leafs- Calle JarnkrokAssists1
- Calle JarnkrokPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:08Dylan Larkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (27)2–1
- P119:42Simon Edvinsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (39), Dylan Larkin (21)1–1
- P14:46Scott Laughton Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (1), Steven Lorentz (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:46Scott Laughton Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (1), Steven Lorentz (10)DET 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 53% → 68% +15TOR 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P119:42Simon Edvinsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (39), Dylan Larkin (21)DET 1 – 1 TOR · DET 30% → 47% +17DET 30% → 47%+17 pts
- OT3:08Dylan Larkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (27)DET 2 – 1 TOR · DET 49% → 98% +49DET 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML DET +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +42 Elo | TOR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 10th of 3212–11 | Road vs home | 16–118th of 32 |
| 27th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15238th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–25 | 22–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–4 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.