Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals2
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:45Kirill Kaprizov Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (43)3–4
- P36:11Mats Zuccarello Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (10), Kirill Kaprizov (35)3–3
- P35:36James van Riemsdyk Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Emmitt Finnie (11), Travis Hamonic (2)3–2
- P30:37Mats Zuccarello Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (42), Brock Faber (21)2–2
- P216:22Lucas Raymond Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (6)2–1
- P117:19Kirill Kaprizov Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (21), Quinn Hughes (41)1–1
- P14:39Lucas Raymond Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (28), Dylan Larkin (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:22Lucas Raymond Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (6)DET 2 – 1 MIN · DET 44% → 67% +23DET 44% → 67%+23 pts
- P30:37Mats Zuccarello Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (42), Brock Faber (21)DET 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 31% → 55% +25MIN 31% → 55%+25 pts
- P35:36James van Riemsdyk Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Emmitt Finnie (11), Travis Hamonic (2)DET 3 – 2 MIN · DET 45% → 74% +28DET 45% → 74%+28 pts
- P36:11Mats Zuccarello Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (10), Kirill Kaprizov (35)DET 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 26% → 55% +29MIN 26% → 55%+29 pts
- OT0:45Kirill Kaprizov Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (43)DET 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 53% → 92% +40MIN 53% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML DET +136 / MIN -162
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -146
- DET +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +69 Elo | MIN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.36th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.0%2nd of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3213–11 | Road vs home | 13–1216th of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 11th of 321515 | Elo rating | 15218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–25 | 28–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 20–7 | 19–4 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.