New Jersey Devils at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dougie HamiltonGoals1
- Connor BrownAssists2
- Dougie HamiltonPoints2
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:48Jordan Eberle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P38:14Jack Hughes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (13), Connor Brown (11)2–3
- P37:22Berkly Catton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (17), Eeli Tolvanen (20)1–3
- P37:04Matty Beniers Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jordan Eberle (16)1–2
- P27:37Ryker Evans Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P18:11Dougie Hamilton Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (22), Connor Brown (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:11Dougie Hamilton Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (22), Connor Brown (10)NJ 1 – 0 SEA · NJ 53% → 68% +15NJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P27:37Ryker Evans Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 29% → 48% +19SEA 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P37:04Matty Beniers Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jordan Eberle (16)NJ 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 48% → 77% +29SEA 48% → 77%+29 pts
- P37:22Berkly Catton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (17), Eeli Tolvanen (20)NJ 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 78% → 94% +16SEA 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P38:14Jack Hughes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (13), Connor Brown (11)NJ 2 – 3 SEA · NJ 5% → 22% +16NJ 5% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML NJ -125 / SEA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- NJ: Elo 46.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +24 Elo | SEA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 46.4%29th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%4th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 9th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 11–1426th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 146926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–32 | 33–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–24 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–30 | 20–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 5–0 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.