Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Pavel MintyukovGoals1
- Pavel MintyukovAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:48Pavel Mintyukov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (12), Drew Helleson (9)4–2
- P31:54Jaden Schwartz Goal (9) Poke, assists: Shane Wright (11), Kaapo Kakko (14)3–2
- P24:00Chris Kreider Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (22), Jackson LaCombe (26)3–1
- P21:55Jared McCann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (15), Matty Beniers (22)2–1
- P115:24Ryan Poehling Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Moore (6)2–0
- P11:02Cutter Gauthier Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (1), Pavel Mintyukov (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:02Cutter Gauthier Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (1), Pavel Mintyukov (8)ANA 1 – 0 SEA · ANA 47% → 62% +15ANA 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P115:24Ryan Poehling Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Moore (6)ANA 2 – 0 SEA · ANA 64% → 79% +14ANA 64% → 79%+14 pts
- P21:55Jared McCann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (15), Matty Beniers (22)ANA 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 19% → 34% +15SEA 19% → 34%+15 pts
- P24:00Chris Kreider Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (22), Jackson LaCombe (26)ANA 3 – 1 SEA · ANA 66% → 81% +15ANA 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P31:54Jaden Schwartz Goal (9) Poke, assists: Shane Wright (11), Kaapo Kakko (14)ANA 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 10% → 26% +17SEA 10% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML ANA +102 / SEA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.2%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- ANA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +37 Elo | SEA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%5th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 11–1326th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149432nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321467 | Elo rating | 147424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–25 | 33–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–18 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–7 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.