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Utah Mammoth at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Utah 16, The Spot - MTN

Away

Mammoth

27-21-4

0–2

at

Home

Lightning

33-14-4

UTA 42%TB 58%

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Benchmark International Arena · ESPN+, Utah 16, The Spot - MTN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.

TB favored UTA favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3TB50%UTA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mammoth
    Lightning

    Scoring summary

    • P319:14Anthony Cirelli Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (12), Nikita Kucherov (54)0–2
    • P217:38Darren Raddysh Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (53), Jake Guentzel (31)0–1

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P217:38Darren Raddysh Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (53), Jake Guentzel (31)UTA 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 77% +22
    2. P319:14Anthony Cirelli Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (12), Nikita Kucherov (54)UTA 0 – 2 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Lightning 58%

    LeanHit
    UTA 42%TB 58%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    TB 58%
    ML UTA +130 / TB -155
    Pre-line forecast
    TB 64%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    TB 64%
    Ratings vs. market
    +5.9 pts
    TB: Elo 64.2%, market 58.3%
    Fair odds
    TB -140
    UTA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    UTA 2.5 – 3.0 TB
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorUTATBWhy
    Team rating15171577Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+7+13UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsTB +101 EloTB 64.2%
    Market-implied ratingsTB 63.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastTB 63.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastTB 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Utah Mammoth and Tampa Bay Lightning compared, with each team's league rank
    UTAStatTB
    16th of 323.2Goals scored3.52nd of 32
    3rd of 322.8Goals allowed2.62nd of 32
    5th of 32+0.4Margin+0.92nd of 32
    6th of 3252.7%Shot share51.3%9th of 32
    18th of 3289.6%Save percentage90.7%5th of 32
    1st of 328–2Last 108–21st of 32
    23rd of 3212–15Road vs home13–98th of 32
    26th of 321496Opponent Elo149624th of 32
    11th of 321517Elo rating15772nd of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    MammothLightning
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonUTATB
    Puck line23–2824–26
    Last 105–56–4
    Favorite12–2214–26
    Underdog11–610–0
    Overs–unders26–2525–25
    Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    UTA 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.