Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- William CarrierAssists1
- Mark JankowskiPoints1
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:42Justin Sourdif Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Ethen Frank (11)3–4
- P313:18Jakob Chychrun Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (18), Tom Wilson (25)3–3
- P214:58Dylan Strome Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Aliaksei Protas (17), Jakob Chychrun (24)3–2
- P27:52Hendrix Lapierre Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (4)3–1
- P24:16Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (11), Jordan Staal (11)3–0
- P117:51Sebastian Aho Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P113:27Mark Jankowski Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (6), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:27Mark Jankowski Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (6), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (7)CAR 1 – 0 WSH · CAR 62% → 76% +14CAR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P117:51Sebastian Aho Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 0 WSH · CAR 76% → 88% +11CAR 76% → 88%+11 pts
- P214:58Dylan Strome Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Aliaksei Protas (17), Jakob Chychrun (24)CAR 3 – 2 WSH · WSH 9% → 22% +13WSH 9% → 22%+13 pts
- P313:18Jakob Chychrun Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (18), Tom Wilson (25)CAR 3 – 3 WSH · WSH 11% → 46% +34WSH 11% → 46%+34 pts
- OT1:42Justin Sourdif Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Ethen Frank (11)CAR 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 47% → 93% +46WSH 47% → 93%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML CAR -192 / WSH +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 52.4%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -171
- WSH +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −18 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · WSH: Clay Stevenson: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +17 Elo | CAR 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.9% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 4th of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 14–1317th of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321553 | Elo rating | 150712th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–33 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–31 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 28–25 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 9–6 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Dec 11CAR 3 @ WSH 2Picked CAR 51%Hit
- Nov 11WSH 4 @ CAR 1Picked CAR 57%Miss
- May 15CAR 3 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Hit
- May 12WSH 2 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 10WSH 0 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 8CAR 1 @ WSH 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 58%Miss
- May 6CAR 2 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 56%Hit
- Apr 10CAR 4 @ WSH 5Picked CAR 59%Miss