Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Jalen ChatfieldAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints2
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints1
Scoring summary
- P212:11Tim Stützle Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (31), Claude Giroux (27)4–1
- P29:29Andrei Svechnikov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (26), Seth Jarvis (16)4–0
- P118:43Taylor Hall Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (15), Jalen Chatfield (11)3–0
- P15:36Seth Jarvis Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (15)2–0
- P13:53William Carrier Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mark Jankowski (7), Jalen Chatfield (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:53William Carrier Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mark Jankowski (7), Jalen Chatfield (10)CAR 1 – 0 OTT · CAR 55% → 69% +14CAR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P15:36Seth Jarvis Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (15)CAR 2 – 0 OTT · CAR 69% → 81% +12CAR 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P118:43Taylor Hall Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (15), Jalen Chatfield (11)CAR 3 – 0 OTT · CAR 84% → 92% +9CAR 84% → 92%+9 pts
- P29:29Andrei Svechnikov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (26), Seth Jarvis (16)CAR 4 – 0 OTT · CAR 95% → 98% +4CAR 95% → 98%+4 pts
- P212:11Tim Stützle Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (31), Claude Giroux (27)CAR 4 – 1 OTT · OTT 1% → 4% +3OTT 1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 55%
- ML CAR -135 / OTT +114
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -123
- OTT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.4 – 3.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −9 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +35 Elo | CAR 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 52.9%4th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 87.1%32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 5th of 3213–10 | Road vs home | 11–1326th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321547 | Elo rating | 149718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–32 | 20–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–2 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.