Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Martin FehervaryAssists2
- Martin FehervaryPoints2
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Connor ZaryAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:07Alex Ovechkin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (28), Martin Fehervary (16)3–1
- P37:35Aliaksei Protas Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (22), Justin Sourdif (12)2–1
- P26:33Hendrix Lapierre Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (32), Martin Fehervary (15)1–1
- P16:09Morgan Frost Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (12)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:09Morgan Frost Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (12)WSH 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 43% → 58% +15CGY 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P26:33Hendrix Lapierre Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (32), Martin Fehervary (15)WSH 1 – 1 CGY · WSH 36% → 55% +19WSH 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P37:35Aliaksei Protas Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (22), Justin Sourdif (12)WSH 2 – 1 CGY · WSH 53% → 81% +28WSH 53% → 81%+28 pts
- P319:07Alex Ovechkin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (28), Martin Fehervary (16)WSH 3 – 1 CGY · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WSH -148 / CGY +124
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 49.9%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -134
- CGY +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 2.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +1 Elo | CGY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.429th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%10th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 28th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 13–1112th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 14th of 321507 | Elo rating | 147225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–25 | 29–21 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–1 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.