Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Jack St. IvanyAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Zach WhitecloudAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:19Thomas Novak Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jack St. Ivany (5)4–1
- P30:50Bryan Rust Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Sidney Crosby (30), Rickard Rakell (13)3–1
- P219:57Yegor Sharangovich Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (6), Kevin Bahl (9)2–1
- P212:32Egor Chinakhov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (17), Evgeni Malkin (26)2–0
- P17:49Evgeni Malkin Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (15), Jack St. Ivany (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:49Evgeni Malkin Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (15), Jack St. Ivany (4)PIT 1 – 0 CGY · PIT 53% → 68% +15PIT 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P212:32Egor Chinakhov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (17), Evgeni Malkin (26)PIT 2 – 0 CGY · PIT 72% → 87% +15PIT 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P219:57Yegor Sharangovich Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (6), Kevin Bahl (9)PIT 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 10% → 25% +15CGY 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P30:50Bryan Rust Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Sidney Crosby (30), Rickard Rakell (13)PIT 3 – 1 CGY · PIT 76% → 91% +15PIT 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P39:19Thomas Novak Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jack St. Ivany (5)PIT 4 – 1 CGY · PIT 96% → >99% +3PIT 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -125 / CGY +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +21 Elo | CGY 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%7th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 7th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 13–1011th of 32 |
| 29th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149431st of 32 |
| 20th of 321486 | Elo rating | 147724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–19 | 29–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 22–6 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–3 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.