Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Ryan LeonardAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals2
- Jared McCannAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:27Matty Beniers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (12), Brandon Montour (14)1–5
- P313:12Ryker Evans Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (10)1–4
- P32:30Alex Ovechkin Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (20), Jakob Chychrun (20)1–3
- P217:54Jordan Eberle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (11), Adam Larsson (8)0–3
- P210:09Jared McCann Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (23), Ryan Lindgren (7)0–2
- P21:15Jared McCann Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (17), Chandler Stephenson (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:15Jared McCann Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (17), Chandler Stephenson (18)WSH 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 49% → 66% +18SEA 49% → 66%+18 pts
- P210:09Jared McCann Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (23), Ryan Lindgren (7)WSH 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 69% → 84% +16SEA 69% → 84%+16 pts
- P217:54Jordan Eberle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (11), Adam Larsson (8)WSH 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 88% → 96% +8SEA 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P32:30Alex Ovechkin Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (20), Jakob Chychrun (20)WSH 1 – 3 SEA · WSH 2% → 9% +7WSH 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P313:12Ryker Evans Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (10)WSH 1 – 4 SEA · SEA 98% → >99% +2SEA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML WSH -118 / SEA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- SEA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +7 Elo | WSH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 46.3%29th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 12–1423rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321509 | Elo rating | 147324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–25 | 34–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 31–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27 | 21–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–1 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.