Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals3
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Evan BouchardPoints6
Scoring summary
- OT0:47Connor McDavid Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (41), Leon Draisaitl (45)5–6
- P319:28Zach Hyman Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (58), Evan Bouchard (40)5–5
- P315:09Connor McMichael Goal (8) Batted, assists: John Carlson (34), Justin Sourdif (13)5–4
- P38:24Connor McDavid Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (39), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (29)4–4
- P36:40Dylan Strome Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (19), Tom Wilson (24)4–3
- P34:30Evan Bouchard Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (57), Leon Draisaitl (44)3–3
- P214:29Anthony Beauvillier Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (33), Ethen Frank (10)3–2
- P26:50Justin Sourdif Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (7), Connor McMichael (22)2–2
- P24:13Evan Bouchard Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (43), Connor McDavid (56)1–2
- P119:34Aliaksei Protas Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (15), Tom Wilson (23)1–1
- P119:12Evan Bouchard Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (20), Zach Hyman (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P36:40Dylan Strome Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (19), Tom Wilson (24)WSH 4 – 3 EDM · WSH 45% → 74% +29WSH 45% → 74%+29 pts
- P38:24Connor McDavid Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (39), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (29)WSH 4 – 4 EDM · EDM 24% → 55% +31EDM 24% → 55%+31 pts
- P315:09Connor McMichael Goal (8) Batted, assists: John Carlson (34), Justin Sourdif (13)WSH 5 – 4 EDM · WSH 47% → 89% +42WSH 47% → 89%+42 pts
- P319:28Zach Hyman Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (58), Evan Bouchard (40)WSH 5 – 5 EDM · EDM <1% → 51% +51EDM <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT0:47Connor McDavid Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (41), Leon Draisaitl (45)WSH 5 – 6 EDM · EDM 53% → 93% +40EDM 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 61%
- ML WSH +145 / EDM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +6 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +105 Elo | EDM 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 24th of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149431st of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 15336th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–25 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.